Only four races remain as the NASCAR Cup Series Chase visits Phoenix Raceway on Sunday for the Freeway Insurance 500.
Defending champion Kyle Larson takes a 49-point lead into the 312-lap race in Avondale, Ariz., airing at 3 p.m. ET on USA Network.
The fall race at Phoenix determined the Cup Series championships from 2020-25, but this time it will just play a role — perhaps a major one — as the title celebration won’t happen until next month at Homestead-Miami.
The new format, plus the accumulation of stage points and bonus points, has made it difficult to project the final outcome.
It took a few races to get a feel as to how this might all pan out, but staying up front and getting those valuable stage points are at the top of the list.
So is qualifying on Row 1 — the easiest way to get to the front is starting there, right? — and the NASCAR Rule Book decided the starting field in four of the first six Chase contests.
That likely won’t happen this weekend in arid Arizona, but remember, Rusty Wallace did win a rain-shortened Phoenix Fall race that went only 257 laps in 1998.
Hendrick Motorsports driver Larson is followed in the standings by the Joe Gibbs Racing trio of Denny Hamlin (-49), Christopher Bell (-51) and Chase Briscoe (-65).
Larson has locked down both his previous Cup championships at Phoenix Raceway: in 2021 when he took the checkers and last year when he ran third to beat sixth-place Hamlin.
However, the No. 5 Chevrolet driver is not as optimistic this weekend.
“Phoenix is difficult for us lately, the last three or four races there,” Larson said following his sixth-place finish last Sunday at Charlotte.
Briscoe and his No. 19 team are brimming with confidence, particularly since he has consecutive wins that belie his average Chase finish of 11.8. And teammate Bell has two career wins in Arizona (2024, 2025).
“The JGR cars in general are gonna be really good at Phoenix,” said Briscoe, who notched his first career win there in March of 2022, during an appearance on Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s podcast.
“Yeah, I feel really good about it. Just where we’re at as a race team right now. There’s really not been a single type of racetrack we’ve been to that we’ve not been fast.”
Hamlin suggested on his podcast that manufacturer Ford, which supports fifth- and sixth-place Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano, would borrow its best assets to help the Team Penske teammates.
After all, Penske did pull a swap by taking Austin Cindric’s crew and changing it with Blaney’s, which struggled all season, just before the playoffs began.
Chevrolet could make a similar move to help out Larson, especially with the next-highest Hendrick Motorsports car (Chase Elliott) sitting outside of the top 10.
“It’s all hands on deck for the 5 car,” Hamlin said on his podcast.
